name: decision-journal description: 用于记录决策背景、理由和结果的决策文档与学习技能 allowed-tools:
- Read
- Write
- Glob
- Grep
- Bash
metadata:
specialization: 决策智能
domain: 商业
category: 知识管理
priority: high
tools-libraries:
- markdown
- sqlite
- pandas
- jinja2
决策日志
概述
决策日志技能提供系统化能力，用于记录决策、跟踪结果并提取组织学习。它创建一个可搜索的决策背景、理由和结果档案，以改进未来决策并建立机构知识。
能力
- 决策记录创建（日期、背景、选项、选择、理由）
- 结果跟踪与事后分析
- 决策模式识别
- 随时间校准跟踪
- 可搜索的决策档案
- 经验教训提取 n- 决策审计追踪
- 报告生成
使用流程
- 决策文档与学习
- 认知偏差去偏过程
- 决策质量评估
使用方法
决策记录
# 创建决策记录
decision_record = {
"metadata": {
"id": "DEC-2024-0042",
"title": "东南亚市场扩张",
"date": "2024-01-15",
"decision_maker": "执行委员会",
"stakeholders": ["CEO", "CFO", "国际副总裁", "区域总监"],
"category": "战略",
"tags": ["扩张", "国际", "增长"]
},
"context": {
"situation": "公司已在国内市场饱和，占有35%份额。增长目标需要新市场。",
"time_horizon": "5年",
"constraints": ["5000万美元投资上限", "必须利用现有产品线", "优先合作伙伴而非绿地投资"],
"urgency": "中等 - 竞争对手行动前有12个月窗口期"
},
"options_considered": [
{
"name": "首先进入越南",
"pros": ["增长最快的经济体", "有利的人口结构", "现有分销商关系"],
"cons": ["监管复杂性", "知识产权保护担忧"],
"expected_outcomes": {"NPV": 25000000, "probability_success": 0.65}
},
{
"name": "以新加坡为枢纽进入",
"pros": ["强大的知识产权保护", "进入东盟的门户", "人才可获得性"],
"cons": ["成本较高", "直接市场较小"],
"expected_outcomes": {"NPV": 18000000, "probability_success": 0.80}
},
{
"name": "推迟1年",
"pros": ["更多市场情报", "经济不确定性解决"],
"cons": ["竞争对手优势", "失去势头"],
"expected_outcomes": {"NPV": 15000000, "probability_success": 0.75}
}
],
"decision": {
"choice": "以新加坡为枢纽进入",
"rationale": "更高的成功概率超过了NPV差异。枢纽战略能以较低风险实现顺序扩张。",
"key_assumptions": [
"新加坡成本结构保持竞争力",
"东盟贸易协定稳定",
"第2-3年有合作伙伴可用性"
],
"dissenting_views": ["CFO更倾向于越南以获得更高的NPV潜力"]
},
"implementation": {
"key_milestones": [
{"date": "2024-Q2", "milestone": "实体成立"},
{"date": "2024-Q4", "milestone": "首次本地招聘"},
{"date": "2025-Q2", "milestone": "首次收入"}
],
"success_metrics": ["收入", "市场份额", "合作伙伴渠道"],
"review_dates": ["2024-07-15", "2025-01-15", "2025-07-15"]
}
}
结果跟踪
# 记录结果
outcome_record = {
"decision_id": "DEC-2024-0042",
"review_date": "2025-01-15",
"actual_outcomes": {
"milestones_met": 2,
"milestones_total": 3,
"revenue": 2500000,
"market_share": 0.02,
"unexpected_events": ["COVID变种影响Q3", "主要竞争对手退出"]
},
"assessment": {
"outcome_vs_expected": "优于预期",
"decision_quality_vs_outcome": "良好决策，良好结果",
"key_learnings": [
"枢纽战略在中断期间提供了灵活性",
"低估了人才可获得性"
],
"would_decide_differently": False,
"process_improvements": ["未来扩张决策中纳入疫情情景"]
}
}
模式分析
# 查询模式
pattern_query = {
"analysis_type": "calibration",
"filters": {
"category": "Strategic",
"date_range": ["2022-01-01", "2024-12-31"],
"decision_maker": "Executive Committee"
},
"metrics": [
"probability_calibration",
"npv_accuracy",
"timeline_accuracy",
"success_rate_by_category"
]
}
输入模式
{
"operation": "create|update|outcome|query|report",
"decision_record": {
"metadata": "object",
"context": "object",
"options_considered": ["object"],
"decision": "object",
"implementation": "object"
},
"outcome_record": {
"decision_id": "string",
"actual_outcomes": "object",
"assessment": "object"
},
"query": {
"filters": "object",
"analysis_type": "string"
}
}
输出模式
{
"decision_record": {
"id": "string",
"created": "string",
"status": "string"
},
"query_results": {
"decisions": ["object"],
"patterns": {
"calibration": {
"overconfidence_rate": "number",
"npv_bias": "number",
"timeline_bias": "number"
},
"success_factors": ["string"],
"common_mistakes": ["string"]
}
},
"report_path": "string"
}
决策质量框架
该技能支持6要素DQ框架：
- 适当框架：问题定义正确吗？
- 创造性替代方案：生成了好的选项吗？
- 有意义的信息：收集了相关数据吗？
- 清晰的价值观：目标明确吗？
- 合理的推理：逻辑应用正确吗？
- 行动承诺：资源分配了吗？
最佳实践
- 在决策时记录（非追溯性）
- 记录不同意见和拒绝的选项
- 明确假设和不确定性
- 将决策质量与结果质量分开
- 按计划系统性地审查结果
- 提取经验教训而无后见之明偏差
- 在整个组织中分享学习成果
集成点
- 输入到决策质量评估器代理
- 与假设跟踪器连接以获取假设结果
- 支持决策档案员代理
- 与校准训练器集成以提高准确性