name: risk-register-manager description: 用于系统性风险识别、评估和追踪的风险登记册管理技能 allowed-tools:

Read
Write
Glob
Grep
Bash metadata: specialization: 决策智能 domain: 商业 category: 风险 priority: medium tools-libraries:
- pandas
- numpy
- jinja2

风险登记册管理器

概述

风险登记册管理器技能提供全面的能力，用于系统性风险识别、评估、缓解规划和持续跟踪。它支持从初始识别到监控和关闭的完整风险管理生命周期。

能力

风险识别和分类
概率和影响评分
风险矩阵生成
风险优先级排序（P*I排名）
缓解策略跟踪
剩余风险计算
风险趋势分析
风险报告生成

使用流程

决策质量评估
蒙特卡洛模拟决策支持
战略情景开发

使用方法

风险识别

# 定义风险
risk_entry = {
    "id": "RISK-001",
    "title": "关键供应商破产",
    "description": "主要零部件供应商面临财务困难，危及供应连续性",
    "category": "供应链",
    "subcategory": "供应商风险",
    "identified_by": "采购经理",
    "identification_date": "2024-01-15",
    "status": "开放",
    "triggers": [
        "供应商信用评级下调",
        "交货延迟 > 2周",
        "财务重组新闻"
    ],
    "affected_objectives": ["生产连续性", "成本控制"]
}

风险评估

# 评估风险
risk_assessment = {
    "risk_id": "RISK-001",
    "probability": {
        "score": 3,  # 1-5 等级
        "rationale": "供应商显示财务压力迹象；行业低迷",
        "confidence": "中等"
    },
    "impact": {
        "financial": {"score": 4, "estimate": 2500000},
        "schedule": {"score": 3, "estimate_days": 45},
        "reputation": {"score": 2},
        "overall": 4
    },
    "risk_score": 12,  # P x I
    "risk_level": "高",
    "velocity": "中等",  # 可能实现的速度
    "assessment_date": "2024-01-20"
}

缓解规划

# 定义缓解策略
mitigation_plan = {
    "risk_id": "RISK-001",
    "response_strategy": "缓解",  # 接受、缓解、转移、避免
    "actions": [
        {
            "id": "MIT-001-A",
            "description": "认证二级供应商",
            "owner": "采购总监",
            "due_date": "2024-03-01",
            "status": "进行中",
            "cost": 50000,
            "effectiveness": 0.6  # 预期风险降低
        },
        {
            "id": "MIT-001-B",
            "description": "将安全库存增加到8周",
            "owner": "供应链经理",
            "due_date": "2024-02-15",
            "status": "未开始",
            "cost": 200000,
            "effectiveness": 0.3
        }
    ],
    "residual_probability": 2,
    "residual_impact": 3,
    "residual_score": 6
}

风险矩阵配置

# 配置风险矩阵
matrix_config = {
    "probability_scale": {
        1: {"label": "罕见", "range": "< 10%"},
        2: {"label": "不太可能", "range": "10-25%"},
        3: {"label": "可能", "range": "25-50%"},
        4: {"label": "很可能", "range": "50-75%"},
        5: {"label": "几乎肯定", "range": "> 75%"}
    },
    "impact_scale": {
        1: {"label": "可忽略", "financial": "< $10K"},
        2: {"label": "轻微", "financial": "$10K - $100K"},
        3: {"label": "中等", "financial": "$100K - $1M"},
        4: {"label": "重大", "financial": "$1M - $10M"},
        5: {"label": "严重", "financial": "> $10M"}
    },
    "risk_levels": {
        "低": {"range": [1, 4], "color": "green"},
        "中": {"range": [5, 9], "color": "yellow"},
        "高": {"range": [10, 16], "color": "orange"},
        "关键": {"range": [17, 25], "color": "red"}
    }
}

输入模式

{
  "operation": "create|update|assess|report",
  "risk": {
    "id": "string",
    "title": "string",
    "description": "string",
    "category": "string"
  },
  "assessment": {
    "probability": "object",
    "impact": "object"
  },
  "mitigation": {
    "strategy": "string",
    "actions": ["object"]
  },
  "report_options": {
    "format": "matrix|list|dashboard",
    "filters": "object"
  }
}

输出模式

{
  "risk_register": [
    {
      "id": "string",
      "title": "string",
      "category": "string",
      "inherent_score": "number",
      "residual_score": "number",
      "status": "string",
      "owner": "string",
      "next_review": "string"
    }
  ],
  "summary_statistics": {
    "total_risks": "number",
    "by_level": "object",
    "by_category": "object",
    "trend": "object"
  },
  "risk_matrix": "object",
  "top_risks": ["object"],
  "overdue_mitigations": ["object"],
  "report_path": "string"
}

最佳实践

定期审查和更新风险登记册（至少每月一次）
为每个风险分配明确的所有者
记录概率和影响评分的理由
跟踪固有风险和剩余风险
包括积极风险（机会）
及时升级关键风险
从已实现的风险中学习

风险应对策略

策略	何时使用	示例
避免	高概率、高影响、可消除	取消高风险项目阶段
缓解	降低概率或影响具有成本效益	增加质量控制
转移	影响可以转移	保险、合同
接受	低优先级或不可避免	预算应急

集成点

输入蒙特卡洛引擎进行定量分析
连接风险价值计算器进行财务风险分析
支持风险分析师代理
与决策可视化集成以生成风险矩阵